By Sanjay Dubey
Wars are rarely judged only by what they do to the country being targeted. They are also judged by what they do to the wider balance of power. The recent U.S.—Israel confrontation with Iran may well weaken Tehran in the short term, but the deeper strategic question is whether it simultaneously opens opportunities for America’s larger geopolitical rivals, particularly Russia and China.
The stated objective of the campaign against Iran has been clear. Washington and Jerusalem argue that reducing Iran’s military capacity will limit its ability to threaten regional partners and project influence across the Middle East through allied militias and political networks. With Iran’s military infrastructure and economic resources under pressure, Tehran’s regional ambitions could be curbed for some time. From this perspective, the campaign is presented as a strategic necessity—a move intended to prevent a more dangerous future confrontation with a nuclear-armed Iran.
But wars produce consequences that cannot be contained by military superiority…