Will the Iran war weaken Tehran or strengthen US’ rivals?
As the Strait of Hormuz closes and oil surges, will weakening Tehran inadvertently fuel a Russian resurgence and Chinese expansion?
By Sanjay Dubey
Wars are rarely judged only by what they do to the country being targeted. They are also judged by what they do to the wider balance of power. The recent U.S.—Israel confrontation with Iran may well weaken Tehran in the short term, but the deeper strategic question is whether it simultaneously opens opportunities for America’s larger geopolitical rivals, particularly Russia and China.
The stated objective of the campaign against Iran has been clear. Washington and Israel argue that reducing Iran’s military capacity will limit its ability to threaten regional partners such as Israel and project influence across the Middle East through allied militias and political networks. Iran’s military infrastructure and economic resources are under pressure, and that in itself could curb Tehran’s regional ambitions for some time. From this perspective, the war is presented as a strategic necessity — a move intended to prevent a more dangerous future confrontation, particularly if Iran were to advance further toward nuclear capability.
But wars produce consequences that cannot be contained by military superiority…