Forget air strikes — India has already hit Pakistan where it hurts the most
Here’s why India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty matters more than the military strikes everyone’s demanding
By Sanjay Dubey
In the aftermath of the ghastly Pahalgam terror attack, India’s public mood has turned sharply aggressive. Demands for immediate military retaliation against Pakistan have dominated television debates and social media feeds, placing intense pressure on the government to act. Sections within the establishment too appeared to contribute to this heightened public mood. Yet, what many Indians have not fully realised is that India may have already delivered a far more consequential response — one that strikes at the heart of Pakistan’s long-term security, without firing a shot.
Among a series of diplomatic, economic, and strategic measures, the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty stands out. There’s a risk of it being dismissed as symbolic or routine, but it is arguably the single most significant strategic decision taken by India in the wake of the attack — one that has the potential to fundamentally reshape the India-Pakistan dynamic.
Signed in 1960 under World Bank mediation, the Indus Water Treaty has long been considered one of the world’s most resilient water-sharing agreements, surviving wars and prolonged hostilities. Under its terms, India, as the upper riparian country, controls the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — while Pakistan has rights over the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. These rivers are the lifeline of Pakistan’s agriculture, economy, and drinking water supply.
What makes this treaty critical for Pakistan today is the country’s deepening water crisis. With one of the world’s lowest per capita water availability figures, Pakistan stands on the verge of officially being declared a water-scarce nation. Decades of poor management, over-extraction, and outdated irrigation infrastructure have worsened the problem. Equally troubling is Pakistan’s internal water conflict, with Punjab province — the upper riparian within Pakistan — historically diverting a disproportionate share of Indus waters, leaving downstream Sindh grappling with drought-like conditions for years.